Why will Bangladesh be a model for US sanctions?

The decision concerning visa restrictions has made it clear that the US has taken Bangladesh up as a model and is setting a new precedence. It was on 10 April this year that the US secretary of state Antony Blinken, at the outset of bilateral talks with Bangladesh’s foreign minister, said, “We are looking and the world is looking to Bangladesh for its next elections to make sure that they set up strong example of free and fair election for the region and world.” The various steps the US is taking one after the other by now has made it clear that the present administration in the US is quite adamant about its aim to make a model of democratic elections in Bangladesh.

The opposition BNP, hungering to return to power, as well as other opposition parties and innumerable members of the public, fuming at being unable to cast their votes in the last two elections, are viewing these steps of the US in a positive light. On the other hand, Awami League and its alliance partners see this as a conspiracy to topple them from power. It is perhaps because they actually have realised that if there is an election in the true sense, they will not be able to return to power.

Around a month after that ministerial level meeting, on 3 May the US informed Bangladesh at a government level that it would  take up a policy of not providing visas to those who would obstruct the democratic election process or be part of such action. Then on 24 May secretary of state Blinken officially announced this decision and openly said, “I am announcing this policy to lend our support to all those seeking to advance democracy in Bangladesh.”

Next, on 22 September, the US state department spokespersons Matthew Miller declared that the visa restrictions had started to be imposed on Bangladeshi individuals responsible for, or complicit in, undermining the democratic election process in Bangladesh. In describing actions that impeded the election process, the US mentioned vote rigging, threatening voters, restoring to violence to obstruct people’s freedom to assemble and their right to hold peaceful gatherings, and other actions that prevented political parties, voters, the civil society or the news media from expressing their views. The policy had started to be imposed against members of the ruling party, the security forces and even of the opposition.

Certain elements of the US measures were unexpected and exceptional. Firstly, on both occasions that the US announced this decision of theirs, prime minister Sheikh Hasina had been in the US on official visits. Secondly, In the case of other countries where visa restrictions had been announced due to questionable elections, this was done only after the elections. But in the case of Bangladesh, the US has taken up this measure at least four months before the election. This is, in diplomatic and military terms, a ‘preempted  strike’.

Thirdly, on behalf of Bangladesh, no matter what angry response there is on an official and unofficial level along with serious accusations of efforts being made to topple the government and create instability, the US continues to maintain calm and normal relations. Senior officials of the US are coming to Dhaka in succession to step up trade, investment, security and other cooperation in various sectors. In the US too there is active dialogue with Bangladeshi officials. It seems that they are unwilling to allow diplomatic relations to take an adverse turn. But since Bangladesh is the first state where the US visa restrictions have been applied even before the election, it is evident that the US is extremely serious about setting up a strong precedence in this regard.

In the meantime, the ministers who had been declaring that the opposition BNP is losing sleep over the exchange of pleasantries and the taking of selfies at the G-20 summit, must be biting their tongues now! The Indian media too was giving out the perception that Delhi had explained to Washington about  the importance of political continuity in Bangladesh, in other words, the continuity of Awami League. The imposition of the US visa restrictions indicates that either India had actually remained silent about the Biden administration’s Bangladesh policy or that the US had not taken their request into cognizance.

Outside of the minister and state minister for foreign affairs and professional diplomats, the prime minister’s investment advisor Salman F Rahman had regularly negotiated with the concerned US officials. Immediately after he hailed the US visa policy measures, the reaction of the prime minister in New York changed the vibes. They had perhaps at first felt it was positive that the opposition was also subject to the visa restrictions, but now they are no longer saying anything positive about this. They are bringing about allegations against the US, going as far as to rake up the history of the liberation war.

As the decision to provide a visa or not is up to the host country, no one should really have any objection to the decision. Bangladesh’s contention is that this is being done with political intent. But that political reason is ‘support to advance democracy’ and a ‘democratic election’. The biggest problem with the leaders in power is, apparently, that they will lose power if there is a free and fair election, and so they do not want anyone to make demands for such an election. This is also apparently against democracy. If there was belief and trust in democratic elections, such a reaction would not be normal. To the contrary, it would be natural to establish a national consensus on the question of election and uphold that.

The elections are around four months away and so naturally the visa restrictions have not been imposed for vote rigging or threatening the voters. So what are the remaining reasons? Using violence to impede the freedom of the people to assemble and their right to peaceful gatherings and adopting measures to obstruct political parties, voters, the civil society or the news media from expressing their opinions. The allegations cannot be refuted. Almost every single day there are news reports and pictures of rallies being obstructed, attacks, coercion, arrests and harassment with fictitious cases. Yet if dialogue was held with the opposition over their demands to reach a solution, the repression and harassment would end and such restrictions could have been avoided.

We, the common people, do not know who are personally affected by the US visa  policy, but the victims themselves are aware. While politicians are frantic to remain in power, government officials and those earning their livelihood through business, will be unwilling to jeopardise their children’s future. That is only natural. According to the embassy records of July, in 2021-22, the number of Bangladesh students there stood at 10,587. The concern and anxiety of their parents can easily be understood.

There is worry over business too. The negative impact on the share market has been reported in the media. The headlines of financial dailies say that the anxiety of businessmen is mounting concerning trade with the western world. Our export market in the US is around USD 9 billion. In 2021-22 investment from the US totaled USD 3.44 billion. And so any delay in resolving the political crisis or complicating it further to become a model of sanctions, is totally unwarranted.

* Kamal Ahmed is a senior journalist.

* This column appeared in the print and online edition of Prothom Alo and has been rewritten for the English edition by Ayesha Kabir.