Resolving diplomatic tensions must be given due priority
The eventful year 2023 has ended. What are the expectations of Bangladesh in the year that starts today? Will the fear and uncertainty that marked the ending of 2023 continue in the New Year? Or will there be a respite in the lives of ordinary people; will there be a breath of fresh air in politics, economy, and foreign relations?
Bangladesh will hold a general election just after six days, on 7 January. How this election is going to be, is largely known. To make the election look competitive, ruling Awami League has allowed independent or ‘dummy’ candidates of the party against its nominated ones. This is perhaps going to increase the turnout slightly. Many of these independent candidates might even win. That would not be a problem as they are the members of Awami League, at the end of the day. The parliament that would be formed after this election would consist of all Awami League members and a few of Jatiya Party and a handful of other alliance-partners of Awami League. It remains to be seen what will be the priorities of the government in foreign policy if Awami League led by Sheikh Hasina forms government again.
But any economic and trade sanctions will be devastating for the country. No matter how much overstatements we make, the reality is that the foundation of our economy is not so strong. A single product dominates most our export income. Most of the export of this product is made to some western countries that we’ve launched verbal spats with.
Awami League has made eight pledges centering foreign affairs in its election manifesto. Two of these pledges seem of particular significance. One is about continuing development cooperation with the US, United Kingdom, European Union, Japan, Canada and other developed countries while in the other , AL vows to extend and strengthen relations with China, Russia and South America in terms of development financing. In South America, I don’t really notice any country capable of providing development financing. And the conditions of loans taken from China and Russia are not so easy. So, our dependency on developed countries and organisations for loans with easy terms will remain the same. Thus, the relations with the West will remain as important as ever for development financing. It remains to be seen just how easy things are going to be in the post-election period.
India, Russia and China have backed the government strongly on the question of the election on different grounds. All of them in fact indirectly made it clear about their choice of Awami League again. On the other hand, the election that is taking place is certainly not being as inclusive, free and impartial as the US and European countries wanted it to be. Meanwhile, the US has imposed visa restrictions on individuals responsible for impeding the democratic process and threatened to slap economic and trade sanctions for violating labour rights. As a result, Awami League leaders at various levels and ministers at different times launched scathing diatribes against the US. It cannot really be claimed that the government’s relations with the US and western world are running smoothly now.
There will be an election here, but the question is whether it will be acceptable to the Western world? Will they continue normal relations and cooperation overlooking the election like they did in 2014 and 2018, or will they slap any sanctions? I don’t know the answer and I'm not sure if anyone does. Foreign secretary Masud Bin Momen recently said that Bangladesh can withstand any sanctions if imposed. This comment infers that the government does not rule out the possibility of sanctions.
I reckon many things will depend on what type of sanctions are going to be imposed. The government will be able to withstand visa restrictions. In such a case, the economy will be negatively affected but no major crisis will arise. But any economic and trade sanctions will be devastating for the country. No matter how much overstatements we make, the reality is that the foundation of our economy is not so strong. A single product dominates most our export income. Most of the export of this product is made to some western countries that we’ve launched verbal spats with.
Relations with India are important for us and it will remain so always. We should also keep good relations with China or Russia. But none of these countries can substitute our relations with western countries. Bangladesh should, in its own interests, take necessary steps to mend its relations with the West.
* Touhid Hossain is a former foreign secretary
* This column appeared in the print and online edition of Prothom Alo and has been rewritten in English by Galib Ashraf