The basic premise of the discussions and MoUs signed between Bangladesh and India during prime minister Sheikh Hasina’s Delhi visit was, India-Bangladesh Shared Vision for Future: Enhancing Connectivity, Commerce and Collaboration for Shared Prosperity. From reviewing the discussions and MoUs, it may seem that smaller irritants have been overlooked in the interests of greater objectives.
A summary of this visit will indicate that Bangladesh and India are drawing up the framework of their cooperation with an invisible side in dominance. It is being said, though, that both sides are making an effort to do this in the interests of both India and Bangladesh.
Have we been able to have adequate connectivity with Nepal and Bhutan? That has not happened and that is why people are venting their anger.
Lofty issues such as digital and green partnership and the Indo-Pacific Strategy have come up in the vision, with Bangladesh being a partner to India is these areas, taking steps for implementation. For example, goods train will travel from India’s Gede to Hasimara in the northeast. Yet it is not clear how this will operate, and whether Bangladesh will have the authority to know what is being carried in the goods train or not. Perhaps these matters will be discussed at a later date.
This will benefit India strategically. They will be able to bypass the Chicken’s Neck and go to the northeast states through Bangladesh and transport their goods too. The reaction evoked in the mind of people in Bangladesh is only natural. After all, a lot has been said and done about connectivity over the past 15 years, and India has been the beneficiary. But we want to benefit too.
When prime minister Sheikh Hasina in 2010 announced that India would be able to use Mongla and Chattogram ports, the main objective was to create a free regional space. That would mean connectivity with not just India, but with Nepal , Bhutan and all other neighbours too. But have we been able to have adequate connectivity with Nepal and Bhutan? That has not happened and that is why people are venting their anger.
There are, however, positive angles to this visit too. This includes enhanced cooperation among India, Bangladesh Nepal and Bhutan. India has given its nod to Bangladesh bringing electricity from Nepal over Indian territory. This will play a positive role to render Bangladesh’s power sector multidimensional in the future.
Both the countries have also agreed to commence with the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA). Negotiations will now take place in this regard. This will further enhance economic ties between Bangladesh and India. However, it will take a few years for the full implementation of CEPA. It involves trade, investment and a lot of factors. Trade investment and a lot of things are involved.
There are no indications of how to overcome the tariff barriers in our trade with India. We face all sorts of hurdles in sending certain items to India. These matters remain unclear. The concept of CEPA is good, though. It will increase opportunities for Bangladesh’s participation and investment in the Indian market.
Another positive factor is that India has given directives to renew the Ganges treaty which will expire in two years’ time. However, already all sorts of negative statements are being made in West Bengal to this end. But I feel that this is a good decision. We can do whatever is required to implement this decision now. The concepts of digital and green partnership are positive too. India is way ahead of us in digital economy and green energy. It will be beneficial to our partnership of we can work together in these areas.
There have been talks for many years between the two countries regarding water management. Other than with Ganges, we have not been able to reach any agreement concerning any other of the 53 common rivers. While the Teesta agreement was prepared in 2011, this was not signed. This is an ardent demand of the people of Bangladesh. The fate of 20 million people in our northern regions is tied to this. India was pledged to this agreement too. However, there was no mention of this agreement in the declaration this time. As this is a common river, we have a right to a share in the waters. But as the Teesta issue has come to a halt, this will have an impact regarding our other rivers too. The fear of losing our rights remains.
The framework drawn up by India and Bangladesh in 2011 regarding rivers, spoke of paying attention to the Teesta, Brahmaputra and Ganges river basins. But it is difficult to understand what they are saying now. They are saying that talks will continue on the basis of our joint river commission’s recommendations, to give priority to exchange of information and an outline for interim water sharing. This does not explain where the Teesta issue stands. As a result, he ambiguity over Teesta remains. We are not comfortable with this. This is, after all, a matter of our rights.
The technical team that is supposed to be coming from India, will work on the Bangladesh side. Does that mean we have shifted away from our focus on the Teesta basic? Dr Ainun Nishat, Sheikh Rokon and several others have raised this issue. It seems that we have entered yet another theoretical complexity regarding the issue of water.
Our prime minister did say that there have been talks in the issue of water sharing. However, the joint declaration offers no clear idea on the matter. India has managed to keep the entire matter behind a smokescreen, a plus point for them. Another matter is that India has now entered the scene where China had put forward a plan regarding Teesta. We have been pitched into a challenge now as to who can do this and how they will do this.
The attention of the two countries regarding this region is another interesting matter. India’s attention is particularly sharper. The seven MoUs that have been signed are all focused on North Bengal. They have announces the opening of a deputy high commission in Rangpur. There was no announcement of whether we would be opening any such office.
There was no declaration or even mention regarding the border killings. Broadly speaking, we do not know whether there were any discussions on the issues where India’s initiative is required to resolve our problems
India has expressed significant interest in issues of military security. There is talk of this outside too. It seems that India wants to involve Bangladesh in its military planning, with China in mind. India wants to mould Bangladesh to its convenience and it apparently seems that Bangladesh is acquiescing.
There was no declaration or even mention regarding the border killings. Broadly speaking, we do not know whether there were any discussions on the issues where India’s initiative is required to resolve our problems. Even if there have been discussions, this has not been reflected in the declaration. In order to implement large visions, it is imperative that we resolve the innumerable smaller problems. We certainly have requirements to be met, but that requires political will. If not, the big visions will throw us into further challenges.
The prime minister will be visiting China next month. They will certainly want to know our areas of understanding with India. They too have plans concerning Teesta. No matter whether it is Teesta or any project, we must decide to whom we will give this on the basis of their experience, competence and financial capacity, and where our interests will be given priority. There may also be discussions with China on a host of other issues including assistance, the Rohingya issue, ensuring that the civil war in Myanmar doesn’t harm our interests and so on.
* M Humayun Kabir is a former diplomat and ambassador
* This column appeared in the print and online edition of Prothom Alo and has been rewritten for the English edition by Ayesha Kabir