What's the ‘cost’ of the election as the government wants it?

The people of Bangladesh are awaiting an election where they can cast their votes. They did not have the opportunity to do so in the last two elections. And no circumstances have emerged where they can hope to do so in the forthcoming election either. Yet the government and the election commission are forging ahead with all preparations, determined that the “election will most certainly be held”.

If BNP eventually does not join the election under this government and cannot stop the election, then January 2024 will see another election as that of January 2014. If that is so, then the people once more may lose their chance to vote.

The election is possibly losing value to the people, or rather the people are being rendered valueless in the election. But that doesn’t make the matter of holding the election ‘valueless’. On all counts, an election is an expensive exercise and that is steadily spiraling higher.

The election commission has drawn up a calculation of its own expenses for the coming election. According to their estimates, this amount will stand at over Tk 15 billion (Tk 1,500 crore). The matter of expenditure will be finalised this week, but there will hardly be much difference from this quoted estimate. Election commission sources say that 60 per cent of this amount will be spent on ensuring law and order. The remaining 40 per cent will be spent on conducting the election.

Notably, the election commission had been allocated Tk 7 billion (Tk 700 crore) for the 2018 election. That means the election commission wants to spend over double than was spent in the last election.

The government wants to provide the DCs and UNOs with new vehicles before the election and that is part of the election expenditure. A total of 261 vehicles will be provided at a cost of Tk 381 crore 58 lakh. The matter has been decided upon in principle. According to finance minister AGM Mustafa Kamal, these vehicles are essential for a fair election. The law minister says the same. He said that the government had an embargo on purchasing new vehicles. But that has been relaxed for the election and so the purchase has been approved. This is extremely necessary. Those whom will be given these vehicles (DCs ad UNOs) are indispensible for a fair election.

Those of the anti-government camp and critics will not want to swallow such explanations. They will see the provision of these vehicles as an ‘election gift’ to these election-related government officials before the polls. The role of the field-level administration in the 2018 election, known as the night-vote election, is no secret. It is important in the government’s own interests to reward them for this and to keep them happy before the impending election. There is also need for incentive so that no one is intimidated by the US visa policy.

Foreign exchange reserves are dropping. Economists have been continuously expressing their concern about the matter. They say that the state of reserves is precarious. Due to the dollar crisis, the opening of LCs for imports fell by 18 per cent compared to last year. LC settlement has fallen by 22 per cent. The import of luxury items is being discouraged. But even so, the fall in reserves can’t be stemmed. Due to the shortfall in dollars, businessmen are facing a hassle in opening LCs. The media is rife with such news. But who bothers about the common people? If you need to travel abroad and need to buy 1000 dollars, just see how difficult that is!

While there is such a precarious plight of dollars, Sports Utility Vehicles are being bought for the DCs and UNOs. Each of these vehicles, extremely necessary for a free and peaceful election, according to the law minister, costs around Tk 15 million (Tk 1.5 crore). It will not be possible to buy these vehicles with the additional taka that Bangladesh Bank is churning out from the printers to tackle the financial crisis. This will require big dollars. So will it be very unjustified if critics consider this initiative a desperate bid by the government to keep the DCs and UNOs ‘happy’? Why must the embargo in buying news cars be relaxed and the reserves be further depleted to purchase these vehicles? How essential are these vehicles for the election towards which the government is headed?

There are a lot more ‘costs’ involved in the manner in which the government wants to hold the election. This is not just the Tk 1,500 crore for the election commission or the Tk 381 crore for the DC and UNO cars. If BNP cannot be brought to the election, they will try their best to thwart it. And the government won’t just sit back idly. This will result in clashes and violence. This will certainly mean the damage of life and property. The financial cost of property damage can perhaps be calculated, but how will we calculate the ‘costs’ if there is a loss of lives?

Proceeding towards another election like that of 2014 means that international observers will stay away from this election. If the election is held in a one-sided manner, that will mean the country will go through an unacceptable election for the third time. Two South Asian countries, Nepal and the Maldives, had their elections in November last year and September this year respectively. No questions were raised about those elections and they had international recognition.

Elections are due to be held in Pakistan under a caretaker government in January next year and in India towards the middle of the year. There is no conflict or differences over how the elections will be held either in Pakistan or in India. In South Asia, it is Bangladesh that faces the most problems regarding the election. After two elections that lack credibility and with the overall democratic space shrinking in the country, Bangladesh is now being considered as a hybrid democracy. And now if an election like that of 2014 is held again, there are questions as to whether Bangladesh will even fall into the democratic category at all. Given the names of the countries with which Bangladesh will be associated, to what level will Bangladesh descend! What is the ‘cost’ of this ignominy?

From quite some time ago, the countries of the West including the US, adopted a stern stance to ensure a free and credible election in Bangladesh. They are taking all sorts of tangible measures including the implementation of the US visa policy restrictions. If Bangladesh fails to ensure a fair and credible election, it may come under fresh pressure in the days to come. Bangladesh is economically dependent on these countries. Bangladesh is facing economic challenges as it is. If more pressure comes from these countries, Bangladesh will be in dire straits. This could be a stiff ‘cost’ to pay.

But the highest ‘cost’ will possibly be paid by the people of Bangladesh if they are unable to cast their votes this time too. The anger, frustration and despair that will emerge among the generation that has grown up bereft of their right to vote, will surely be a ‘cost’ beyond measure.

* This column appeared in the print and online edition of Prothom Alo and has been rewritten for the English edition by Ayesha Kabir

* AKM Zakaria is deputy editor of Prothom Alo and can be reached at akmzakaria@gmail.com