China to feature significantly in talks during PM Hasina’s India visit

Bangladesh’s prime minister Sheikh Hasina and Indian prime minister Narendra Modi will meet for talks today, Saturday, at the Hyderabad House in Delhi to discuss a roadmap to further future relations between the two close neighbours. They will discuss various news areas which can advance relations further, alongside the present trend of cooperation.

After the meeting between the two top leaders, over 10 agreements and MoUs of various areas of cooperation are likely to be signed and renewed.

Prime minister Sheikh Hasina reached Delhi in the afternoon yesterday, Friday, on a two-day visit. She was received at the Palam airport by India’s state minister for external affairs Kirti Vardhan Singh.

Diplomatic sources of both countries said that the two prime ministers will be holding talks this time under different times and circumstances. Sheikh Hasina is scheduled to visit Beijing in the second week of next month. Given the changing geopolitical circumstances, the China issue seems to feature prominently in the relations between the two countries.

Dhaka and Delhi diplomatic sources have informed Prothom Alo that the roadmap to be laid down by the two leaders will include issues pertaining to economic cooperation, connectivity, energy, water resources and more.

According to several diplomatic sources in Delhi, Sheikh Hasina and Narendra Modi will sit for talks in three different stages in the first half of the today, Saturday, at Hyderabad House. Alongside exclusive talks, the two leaders will also have talks along with a few delegates, and then later with the delegation in a wider scale.

Unresolved issues between Bangladesh and India, such as border killings, water sharing as well as tariff and non-tariff barriers in the area of trade, have featured during talks over the past few years. These issues will be raised this time too. Alongside these issues, the agenda for talks are to include economic cooperation, connectivity, IT, defence, energy and other issues. Discussions on regional and international issues will include the Myanmar border situation, the Rohingya crisis and such issues.

It has been learnt that China will feature prominently during talks on regional and international issues between the prime ministers of the two neighbouring countries. The issue of China may crop up in context of bilateral issues like Teesta water sharing and also connectivity.

Diplomatic sources say that during his visit to Dhaka in May, the Indian external affairs secretary Vinay Kwatra held preliminary discussions regarding prime minister Sheikh Hasina’s Delhi trip. Accordingly 21 and 22 June were fixed as tentative dates for the visit. As prime minister Sheikh Hasina is scheduled to visit Beijing in July, India was ready to receive the Bangladesh prime minister before that. In the meantime, prime minister did pay a visit to Delhi to attend the swearing-in ceremony of the Indian prime minister Narendra Modi. Apprehensions did crop up briefly as to whether the planned Delhi trip would be shelved because of this trip for the swearing-in ceremony.

Diplomatic analysts say that with the NDA alliance coming to power in India, it is focusing on close relations with neighbouring countries. And with China’s influence expanding in the region, India is giving particular importance to its ‘Neighbourhood First’ policy.

When asked about the issue, foreign secretary Masud Bin Momen told Prothom Alo, “Prime minister Sheikh Hasina’s India and China trips are very important for Bangladesh. There is no such thing as a ‘zero sum game’ here. We want to maintain a win-win situation with all countries. Relations between Bangladesh and India have historic context, have a geographical stand. We do not want to compare relations with India to that with any other country. There are dimensions and perspectives to relations with each and every country. Our priorities, concerns or national interests will remain our priorities.

Since the year 2020 China suddenly loomed large in talks centering Bangladesh and India relations. This particularly was significant as the treaty regarding one of Bangladesh and India’s main share river Teesta remained unsigned despite being finalised in 2011. China came up with a proposal for Bangladesh concerning a large project involving the river Teesta. The matter was so sensitive to India that even amid the Covid pandemic, the country’s foreign secretary at the time, Harsh Vardhan Shringla, came to Bangladesh to discuss the matter. Since then the matter of the Teesta project has been stalled between Bangladesh and China. China continues over the past two years to express hope for the project. But taking India’s unease in this regard into consideration, Bangladesh had adopted a “go-slow” policy regarding China’s Teesta project since 7 January.

Several diplomatic sources in Delhi have told this correspondent that India has suddenly become interested in the river Teesta. During the talks between the two leaders this time, India may come up with a proposal regarding Teesta similar to that of China’s. There are various complexities in Chinese finding or investing, a lack of transparency. Also, Teesta is of one of 54 common rivers between the two close neighbours. In this context India may say that the two countries can have one Teesta project where no other outside quarters are required.

While there is talk of India coming up with an alternative proposal regarding Teesta, there is nothing clear about financial as yet. Bangladesh’s state minister for water resources Zahid Faruk and water resources secretary Najmul Ahsan are not included in the prime minister’s entourage to Delhi this time. So while there are speculations about a new Indian proposal regarding Teesta, there is little likelihood of any agreement being signed in this regard.

Bangladesh Bank governor Abdur Rauf Talukdar and Economic Relations Division (ERD) secretary Ms Shahriar Kader Siddique have accompanied the prime minister as part of her entourage to Delhi. There is likelihood of discussions on rupee-taka transactions between the two countries, in exclusion of the dollar. Also to feature in talks are how speedily the Indian loan agreement with Bangladesh can be implemented and under what conditions further credit can be extended. The loan agreement issue will be included in the joint declaration to be made after the meeting between the two leaders.

A diplomatic source of Delhi has said that India is a tried and tested friend of Bangladesh. The talks in rupee-taka transactions and a loan agreement on new terms indicate that India wants to prove to be a good alternative to China. After all, China also wants to do transactions in local currency and provide Bangladesh with a loan in yuan equivalent to of US 5 billion (USD 500 crore) in trade assistance. In such a situation, India feels that China is not the only option for Bangladesh. India is ready to come forward too.

For over a decade India has been giving railway importance in the area of connectivity with Bangladesh. They are placing stress on going back to the pre-partition communications for the commute of cargo and people between the two countries. India has interest in using Bangladesh territory for communication with its northeast region. During talks this time India may raise the issue of railway link between Bangladesh and Bhutan via India. Bangladesh has taken the matter of railway in the private sector into consideration. India may come up with a proposal in this regard so that Dhaka gives no particular country advantage in the matter of opening up the railway to the private sector.

Sources in Delhi say India may come up with a proposal regarding Mongla port. India is considering construction of a terminal at Mongla port. Incidentally, Bangladesh had taken a loan from China for the modernization of Mongla port.

When asked about the matter, former ambassador and president of Bangladesh Enterprise Institute (BEI), M Humayun Kabir, told Prothom Alo that the extent and depth of relations Bangladesh has with India and with China are very different. There is no similarity in the relations. India should thus view its relations with Bangladesh on a bilateral footing. It would not be wise to mix the China issue with these relations. Bangladesh will get involved in various nations in its own interests. And as a responsible and good neighbor, Bangladesh will not do anything that will harm its close friendship with India. India must keep this trust in Bangladesh. It is imperative to take relations ahead on the basis of trust and mutual respect.

Analysts feel that it is nothing new that China poses as a headache in the context of South Asia, including the Indo Pacific. India will hardly change this mindset overnight. In fact, given China’s increasing presence in the region, India will also increase its links with countries of the neighbourhood. After all, China is likely to continue ahead with its financial assistance. But India will want to show its neighbours that it is a better alternative and friend in hard times. India will highlight its support to Sri Lanka and the Maldives in times of financial crisis.

Diplomatic analysts say that due to prevailing geopolitics, prime minister Sheikh Hasina’s Delhi and Beijing trips have somehow become sort of “balancing visits”. This is a challenge for Bangladesh too. It is important for Bangladesh, in its own interests, to maintain cooperation with various countries and blocs. That is why Bangladesh needs to explain to other countries that when Dhaka cooperates with any country, that will not harm the interests of other countries.

Vice president of India’s Observer Research Foundation (ORF), Harsh Panth, speaking over mobile phone from Delhi to Prothom Alo yesterday, Thursday, said China will inevitably feature in talks between the two prime ministers, in the present-day context. It is not only about the Teesta project. India will want to know and understand how Bangladesh’s relations with China are progressing. They will also highlight how India wants to see Bangladesh’s relations with China. On the whole, Delhi does not want to remain in the dark about Dhaka-Beijing relations. He feels that as a leader, Sheikh Hasina took up the right strategy in visiting Delhi before her Beijing visit