Saint Martin's situation certainly calls for counter response

The Saint Martin's Island may not be a very important island in a strategic sense. It is a small coral island. It is not very safe, security-wise. To the west of the river Naf is Bangladesh and to the east, Myanmar. If we look at the Myanmar coastline, we will see that it goes down from Shahpori Island and proceeds south much like a funnel. Bangladesh maritime territory is used to reach Saint Martin's Island, and some parts of the route are very close to Myanmar.

A civil war prevails in the Rakhine region. The Arakan Army has taken over 17 to 18 towns in the northern part of Rakhine already. The fight with the Myanmar army is basically now taking place in Maungdu. The Arakan Army has surrounded this town. The town lies along the border with Bangladesh.

There are two posts of the Myanmar Border Guard Police near the border with Bangladesh. As far as has been learnt, both the posts are now under control of the Arakan Army. If we take a look at the Rakhine map, we will see that as a result of the Arakan Army taking over these two posts, the road leading to Sittwe has been completely cut off. And with Rathidaung being taken over too, the road linking Maungdu with Yangon had also been more or less cut off.

There is fear that it is the Arakan Army's firing that can be directed towards our trawlers and speedboats. That is because they feel that the Bangladesh authorities are arming the Rohingya, ARSA and RSO, and sending them to Arakan. The Bangladesh government has made no statement to verify whether these claims are true or not.

The matter remains that the Arakan Army do not trust the Rohingya. They have all sorts of suspicions particularly about the Rohingya Solidarity Organisation (RSO) and the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA). It has been learnt that RSA and ARSA are being equipped with arms and are fighting against the Arakan Army on behalf of the Myanmar army, Tatmadaw. It has been learnt that after the fall of Buthidaung, around 30,000 to 40,000 Rohingyas there have fled to the hills. The homes of the Rohingyas there have been burnt to the ground. The Arakan Army, however, denied that they have set fire to the Rohingya homes. They say that these were destroyed by the Myanmar air force shelling.

We have seen in the news media that a Myanmar gunboat of naval ship was positioned in the Naf River. The question is whether they remained within their maritime territory. If they were within their own territory, then we cannot take any measures legally.

Presumably the Myanmar vessel came to the river Naf to launch a counter attack on the Arakan Army. The objective was to thwart the fall of Maungdu. After all, if Maungdu falls into Arakan Army's hands, the fall of Sittwe will be imminent. That also means that the headquarters of the army in North Rakhine will also fall and the entire North Rakhine will be in Arakan Army's control. Under these circumstances, as all roads have been obstructed, the Tatmadaw may have opted now to use the navy.

If Maungdu falls, that will be a serious blow to Tatmadaw. There are around 100,000 Rohingya there. They are being used as human shields. If the Arakan Army takes over Maungdu, the fate of the Rohingya will be uncertain again. The Rohingya do not have the strength to resist the Arakan Army or to negotiate with them and reach an understanding.

What are the choices for Bangladesh under these circumstances? The Arakan Army is a non-state actor. A state cannot openly interact with such a non-state actor. But the reality is that the areas lying alongside our border are under control of these non-state actors. If Maungdu is taken over, the entire region there will be under Arakan Army control. In this situation, our government must consider whether or not it will go for talks with the Arakan Army. Bangladesh will have to take the risk of opening talks with the non-state actor Arakan Army.

The second choice is to take counter measures. That does not necessarily mean counter attack. But we certainly must take some counter steps in response to whoever encroaches upon our maritime territory, whether it is the Arakan Army, the Myanmar army or its naval force.

In conclusion, it must be noted that though India has long standing enmity with the Arakan Army, it is ready to forget the past and work for the future. That is all behind the scenes. It must be kept in mind, we must do whatever we have to do on our own accord, not involving any other country. If any other country gets involved, the entire area may become a raging battlefield. There will be chances of a large-scale geopolitical disaster. In order to avoid this, Bangladesh must take certain decisions in its own interests.

Given the overall situation, it seems that Bangladesh is walking along a tightrope. Generally speaking, the people feel that diplomatic letters or such steps won't do the trick. No matter to how limited a degree, we must come up with a counter response.

* M Sakhawat Hossain is former election commissioner and SIPG senior research fellow (NSU). hhintlbd@yahoo.com

* This column appeared in the print and online edition of Prothom Alo and has been rewritten for the English edition by Ayesha Kabir