Narendra Modi faces a tough challenge

It has been less than a week since Narendra Modi completed 25 years in power. He served as chief minister of Gujarat for 13 consecutive years and has been at the helm of the country for the past 12.

Many people remain convinced that he will spend another three years as prime minister and lead his party and alliance into the next Lok Sabha election. Over this quarter-century, no figure has emerged, either within his party or among the opposition, who could outshine Modi.

Yet he is facing considerable uncertainty at this moment. His political fortunes, or perhaps the consequences of his own actions, have once again brought him face to face with a crucial test. The question is whether he will overcome it, as he has so often done before.

Over the past 25 years, Modi has faced no shortage of challenges and crises. Soon after becoming Gujarat’s chief minister in 2001, he had to deal with the devastating earthquake in Kutch.

The following year came the Godhra incident and the communal riots in Gujarat. He faced fierce criticism from senior leaders of his own party. When his position as chief minister was on the verge of collapse under the wrath of Atal Bihari Vajpayee, it was Lal Krishna Advani, then regarded as the BJP’s iron man, who came to his rescue.

The fallout from the Gujarat riots continued for years, both at home and abroad. He weathered the arrest of Amit Shah, his trusted right-hand man, cases related to the riots and the humiliation of having his US visa revoked.

Gradually, he consolidated his position to such an extent that, ahead of the 2014 Lok Sabha election, the RSS put him forward as its trump card against the Congress. The rest is history.

Modi’s life as prime minister has hardly been free of turbulence. He brought trouble upon himself, perhaps without realising it, with his announcement of demonetisation.

The introduction of the goods and services tax (GST) also drew considerable opposition. Conflicts across the border kept him on edge. First came Uri, then Pulwama.

Despite failures in preventing the attacks, he demonstrated how adverse circumstances could be turned to political advantage. His victory in the 2019 Lok Sabha election, with an even larger majority, showed what a combination of hard-line Hindutva campaigning and election machinery could achieve.

During the Covid-19 pandemic, Modi supplied vaccines to several countries in the developing world, seeking to project himself as a global leader. Despite being shaken by Chinese aggression in Galwan, he managed to avoid losing his footing.

The farmers’ protests put him under pressure, but he was ultimately forced to withdraw the three controversial farm laws. He showed that he knew when to take a step back.

Despite winning fewer seats in the 2024 election, Modi has not once allowed anyone to see how difficult it has been for him to run the government and keep his coalition intact over the past two years.

Few political leaders in India have matched Modi’s ability to turn political setbacks into opportunities and emerge stronger from adversity.

Whether Modi can overcome this crisis, as he has previous ones, has suddenly become a question hanging over him. Serious allegations now confront the government: whether Chief Election Commissioner Gyanesh Kumar is conducting elections in accordance with the Constitution; whether the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls was carried out in compliance with the law; whether the Gyanesh-led Election Commission is being used to serve the BJP’s interests; and whether, despite wearing the mantle of impartiality, he is acting as a blind loyalist of Modi and Shah. Until now, every such allegation directed at the government has come from the opposition.

For the first time, however, two people who have reinforced the opposition’s questions and suspicions are colleagues of Gyanesh Kumar himself—people whose appointment was also made by Modi and Shah. Nearly three weeks have passed, yet Gyanesh Kumar and his team have not issued a statement dismissing The Indian Express report as false.

The three election commissioners have still not held a press conference to rebut the allegations. Instead, their press release has, by implication, suggested that every allegation raised by the newspaper is true.

This crisis differs from the earlier ones in several important respects. For the first time, the Election Commission, a constitutional body, has come under direct fire. The Modi government has reshaped the process for appointing its officials in ways that favour the ruling establishment.

Removing the Chief Justice of India from the committee responsible for appointing the chief election commissioner and election commissioners, and replacing him with another cabinet member, has made it clear that the government is determined to entrust the conduct of elections to its own “loyalists”.

The decision to grant the three commissioners lifelong legal protection is also unprecedented and controversial. The President, the prime minister and even the Chief Justice of India do not enjoy such immunity. Why, then, this protection? Whose interests does it serve? What wrongdoing by the Election Commission is the government seeking to shield through this immunity? These serious questions are stirring public debate, and the Modi government has yet to offer convincing answers. Both matters are currently under consideration by the Supreme Court.

Until now, the challenges confronting Modi have come from political parties, individuals, professional groups such as farmers, workers and physicians, or government employees.

For the first time, the country’s Gen Z has stood up to the government and challenged it directly. The sweeping changes brought about by Gen Z movements in Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Nepal are well known. Now, Gen Alpha has joined forces with this fearless generation.

After more than a decade in power, the policies and actions of the prime minister and his party have created a degree of political fatigue and disillusionment. Gen Z’s lack of trust in the government has also energised the opposition. The movement, however, has yet to develop a coherent structure, and the opposition remains far from united in its opposition to Modi.

The BJP has already decided to frame the struggle as one between “patriots and anti-nationals”, “nationalists and separatists”, and as a foreign conspiracy against the country. BJP president Nitin Nabin has made this position clear, claiming that foreign enemies who resent India’s progress under Modi are conspiring against the government. The contest, in the BJP’s framing, is therefore between true Indians and those opposed to India.

This is how Narendra Modi has prevailed for a quarter-century. He has built his electoral fortunes on hard-line Hindutva, invoking the “Hindustan-Pakistan” narrative. Now, for the first time, the Election Commission itself faces a fundamental challenge, with Gen Z raising questions about the state of democracy.

It is worth remembering that by 2029, India’s Gen Z population is projected to reach 380 million. If Gen Alpha is added, the two generations together will account for 800 million voters by the next Lok Sabha election. Can Modi overcome opposition from these generations by relying on Hindutva and promising good governance? Can he keep his head held high and defy all political speculation? There is little doubt that this may well be the greatest challenge of his political life.