Bangladesh-India relations face trial of fire

The July-August change of political scenario in Bangladesh has had a deep impact on Bangladesh-India relations. As India is a large neighbour, it is also important on the part of Bangladesh to pay due attention to the prevailing tensions. It is essential for both sides to look into how normalcy can be restored to these relations and on equal footing.

The honeymoon between the two neighbours was stretching on over of the last one and a half decades. Then the present events took place. In face of the student-people's movement, Sheikh Hasina on 5 August resigned as prime minister and went to India along with certain others. And this opened a new chapter in India-Bangladesh politics.

Prime minister Sheikh Hasina has visited India many times. She has been accorded huge receptions. But the significance and response this time was different for both sides.

The matter of Sheikh Hasina taking shelter in India or of the Indian authorities providing her with protection, is being given significant attention in Bangladesh. India, though, has said that it was obliged to provide shelter in the sudden unforeseen circumstances. But it is not clear in New Delhi whether the India administration provided her shelter as a "refugee" or under any other status. India has no clear refugee policy or law. Shelter is provided on political considerations.

After Sheikh Hasina left the country and went to India, certain members of her family and of her party have been expressing their displeasure in the media. They are not accepting the change and are blaming various opponents. That is not unnatural.

No deposed powers in world history have wanted to accept their immediate helpless state or understand reality. But questions have arisen in diplomatic circles as to whether India will continue to lean towards Awami League's contentions. As it is, surprise has been expressed in the diplomatic arena over India's Sheikh Hasina policy. The question is -- why have they given their backing and support for such an extended period to a single party and government that was so unpopular among the people.
There is also a question as to whether India's Bangladesh policy created this downfall.

Over the past 15 years during the Awami League rule, New Delhi got the Hasina government to fulfill many of its wants, but did not reciprocate with Teesta water or other needs of the people this side of the border. All this simply served to hammer in more nails in the coffin of the unpopular government.

Doubts have arisen as to whether the India diplomatic and intelligence sources were accurately apprised of the reality on ground. The Indian media too is now probing into whether this was failure or obstinacy on the part of the Indian intelligence structure and diplomatic team. In New Delhi many are not contesting the issue and are accepting that they are in "dire straits" in Dhaka.

There are all indications that anti-BJP quarters will project this as a failure of the Modi government. Already Congress' Manish Tewari has placed a notice in the Lok Sabha asking for the government's statement on the situation in Bangladesh. The very day that Sheikh Hasina resigned, Shiv Sena's Priyanka Chaturvedi said in The Hindu that the events in Bangladesh were bad precedence from the angle of India's geopolitical interests.

Outside of these reactions and counter reactions in India's national politics, many independent analysts there are also raising the question, what message does India want to give the people of Bangladesh, who are aspiring for change, by displaying sympathy for a government that fell amidst unpopularity, protest and which carried out a cruel killing spree? In considerations of long-term diplomacy, are these astute decisions on the part of India? Instead of rectifying past mistakes, will they exacerbate these further.

After Sheikh Hasina took shelter in India, Bangladesh has dissolved the parliament and an interim government headed by Nobel laureate Dr Muhammad Yunus has been installed in power. This government basically is an election-time non-partisan government. But even though it is a temporary government, it will require support and assistance of the international community. India's role and cooperation is important and necessary too. Bangladesh's multidimensional trade relations with its neighbour cannot be ignored either.

Bangladeshi nationals go in large numbers to India on a regular basis for education, medical treatment and all sorts of reasons. This is a significant source of revenue for India too. Normal relations are required in the interests of both countries. But after the former prime minister left the country, the Indian attitude being aired from various quarters is disconcerting for Bangladesh's new government. Train service between the two countries has come to a halt. It is reported that the brakes have been pulled on the trucks at the land ports too.

In the meantime, Sajib Wazed Joy, son of the former prime minister, told Reuters on Saturday that his mother didn't resign before going to India and that she is still the prime minister of Bangladesh. Yes just a few days ago, in his first reaction on the ongoing events, he said that his mother was no longer willing to do politics. His new claim implies that India is sheltering Bangladesh's prime minister.

For valid reasons such statements have caused displeasure among the forces of change in Bangladesh. There is the apprehension that this will spark off agitation in a situation where peace and order is gradually being restored. It is clear that in keeping with Joy's statement if the former prime minister wants to carry out any political or administrative activities from India, this will not be taken well by the new political forces in Bangladesh. These rising forces are keeping sharp watch in India's role.

The local people here already are suspecting that India may be trying to cast a slur on the new political realities and new government in Bangladesh. Such suspicions are creating strong pressure on bilateral relations of the two countries. So rebuilding ties with the large neighbour poses as a challenge to the interim government. Also, this situation has created an unnecessary and unwarranted pressure on communal relations within Bangladesh. The situation demands New Delhi give the matter in-depth consideration.

Political analysts say the extremely exceptional circumstances that have emerged in Bangladesh's society and political urgently requires India's dispassionate consideration. There is no scope to overlook this. Had the elections in Bangladesh over the past years been inclusive and had Indian policymakers played a positive role in this regard rather than deliberate nonchalance, perhaps the present scenario would not have arisen. That questionable strategy served to accelerate the change in public psyche, resulting in the events of July-August 2024. This Bangladesh cannot be comprehended with conventional worn-out diplomatic mindsets. Rather that favouring any particular party or group, India needs to speedily reach out to the public psyche.

The various governments of Bangladesh have been adept at dealing with the Congress, BJP, Janata Dal governments in India in the past. India urgently needs to also become acclimatised to dealing with all political parties of its neighouring country. It needs to understand and respect the aspirations and expectation of the young generation here. That is the way for New Delhi to pull out from the "dire straits".

At the same time the new government in Bangladesh must continue by all means to endeavour keeping ties with India normal in order to take forward the task of political reforms. There is no alternative but to maintain good relations with a neighbour with whom we have a border almost 2500 miles long. There is no scope to give upon this.
Given the circumstances on both sides, on 9 August the Indian prime minister felicitated the chief advisor of the interim government in Bangladesh. That is a positive sign. Everyone hopes that these mutual good wishes will continue in the days to come. After all, good relations between Bangladesh and Pakistan are essential for the overall security of South Asia.

As violence and agitation spreads in Manipur and Myanmar, any diplomatic distance between Bangladesh and India will simply increase the complexities in regional geopolitics. But experience of the past five decades says such meaningful relations will only be sustainable if there is equality in relationship and a policy of non-interference in each other's domestic affairs.

* Altaf Parvez is a researcher on South Asian History

* This column appeared in the print an online edition of Prothom Alo and has been rewritten for the English edition by Ayesha Kabir